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Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Regional Event - The Banish Zone
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 13.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.7% | -13.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Wind Allies | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 9.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 9.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.8% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 33.4% | -12.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 3.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.8% | +13.3 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 50 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 50 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Slash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Majestic Spirit's Crest | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blitz Mage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Infusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conceal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Fury | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Firetongue | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Warrior's Longsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |