← Regional Event - The Banish Zone

Fire Crux LorraineTier 2

at Regional Event - The Banish Zone

decks
2 (3.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11 3-5-3
overall winrate
40.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.2% avg ELO -3.0 per match
expected value
43.9% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.3% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1221 · median 1221 · range 1205–1237 (2 pilots with an ELO rating)
957 Q1 1128 Q3 1315 1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Allies 13.7% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 35.7% -13.7
Fire Umbra Ranger 11.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.3% -13.9
Wind Allies 11.8% 0
Fire Aggro 9.8% 0
Fire Erupting 9.8% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 57.5% +7.2
Fire Crux Mage 7.8% 3 0-2-1 16.7% 35.7% 33.4% -12.4
Fire Luxem Assassin 5.9% 0
Fire Arcane 3.9% 0
Fire Neos 3.9% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 63.8% +13.3
Wind Umbra Diana 3.9% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 53.0% +4.8
Fire Tera Silvie 2.0% 0
Water Luxem Assassin 2.0% 0
Water Neos 2.0% 0
Water Tera Silvie 2.0% 0
Water Umbra Diana 2.0% 0
Water Umbra Ranger 2.0% 0
Wind Arcane 2.0% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 2.0% 0
Wind Neos 2.0% 0
Wind Silvie 2.0% 0
Decklists · 2 from this event

The 2 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 50 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 50 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand +1.00 1 0 0
Water Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Fire Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Lurking Assailant -1.00 0 1 0
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa -1.00 0 1 0
Spurn to Ash +1.00 1 0 0
Spirit Blade: Ensoul +1.00 1 0 0
Creative Shock +1.00 1 0 0
Savage Slash +1.00 1 0 0
Blazing Bowman -1.00 0 1 0
Stalwart Shieldmate +1.00 1 0 0
Inspiring Call -1.00 0 1 0
Scavenging Raccoon -1.00 0 1 0
Fast Cure -1.00 0 1 0
Imperial Recruit -1.00 0 1 0
Cremation Ritual +1.00 1 0 0
Wind Resonance Bauble -1.00 0 1 0
Hasty Messenger +1.00 1 0 0
Scry the Skies +1.00 1 0 0
Clarent, Sword of Peace -1.00 0 1 0
Escape the Wreckage +1.00 1 0 0
Fractal of Insight -1.00 0 1 0
Library Witch +1.00 1 0 0
Majestic Spirit's Crest -1.00 0 1 0
Esteemed Knight -1.00 0 1 0
Banner Knight -1.00 0 1 0
Ghosts of Pendragon +1.00 1 0 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +1.00 1 0 0
Dungeon Guide +1.00 1 0 0
Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge +1.00 1 0 0
Blitz Mage -1.00 0 1 0
Exorcise Curses +1.00 1 0 0
Hone by Fire -1.00 0 1 0
Arthur, Young Heir -1.00 0 1 0
Honorable Vanguard -1.00 0 1 0
Devastating Blow +1.00 1 0 0
Deflecting Edge -1.00 0 1 0
Flame-Rune Swordsman -1.00 0 1 0
Flame Sweep +1.00 1 0 0
Spirit Blade: Infusion +1.00 1 0 0
Ornamental Greatsword -1.00 0 1 0
Conceal -1.00 0 1 0
Fiery Momentum -1.00 0 1 0
Quicksilver Grail +1.00 1 0 0
Drawn Blade +1.00 1 0 0
Innervate Fury -1.00 0 1 0
Rending Flames -1.00 0 1 0
Firetongue +1.00 1 0 0
Warrior's Longsword -1.00 0 1 0
Tempered Steel -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/458/archetypes/Fire Crux Lorraine