← Regional Event - The Banish Zone
Fire EruptingTier 2
at Regional Event - The Banish Zone
decks
5
(9.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
26
11-12-3
overall winrate
48.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.5%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
48.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1212
· median 1218
· range 1122–1328
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1128
Q3 1315
1656
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
40% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 13.7% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 36.2% | -8.0 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 11.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.9% | +6.6 |
| Wind Allies | 11.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.6% | -4.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.5% | -7.2 |
| Fire Neos | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 62.0% | +11.5 |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Wind Neos | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Wind Silvie | 2.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.9% | +4.4 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Erupting decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
