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Fire Umbra RangerTier 1
at Regional Event - The Banish Zone
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 13.7% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 34.3% | -10.1 |
| Wind Allies | 11.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 33.4% | -12.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 9.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Fire Erupting | 9.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.1% | -6.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.4% | +10.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.1% | -6.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Fire Neos | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Water Neos | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.7% | +6.5 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Wind Silvie | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Automaton Bomber | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Airship Engineer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Force Load | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |