← Regional Event - The Banish Zone

Fire Umbra RangerTier 1

at Regional Event - The Banish Zone

decks
6 (11.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
26 13-13-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.6% avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
45.9% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.6% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1220 · median 1217 · range 1091–1352 (6 pilots with an ELO rating)
957 Q1 1128 Q3 1315 1656
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 17% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Allies 13.7% 4 1-3-0 25.0% 37.5% 34.3% -10.1
Wind Allies 11.8% 3 0-3-0 0.0% 28.6% 33.4% -12.4
Fire Aggro 9.8% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.9% -8.2
Fire Erupting 9.8% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 41.1% -6.6
Fire Crux Mage 7.8% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 61.4% +10.9
Fire Luxem Assassin 5.9% 3 1-2-0 33.3% 42.9% 41.1% -6.7
Fire Arcane 3.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.1% +12.9
Fire Crux Lorraine 3.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.7% +13.9
Fire Neos 3.9% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.8% +15.7
Wind Umbra Diana 3.9% 0
Fire Tera Silvie 2.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.1% +11.4
Water Luxem Assassin 2.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 60.8% +17.3
Water Neos 2.0% 0
Water Tera Silvie 2.0% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 58.7% +6.5
Water Umbra Diana 2.0% 0
Water Umbra Ranger 2.0% 0
Wind Arcane 2.0% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 2.0% 0
Wind Neos 2.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.3% +14.9
Wind Silvie 2.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.0% -16.0
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Resolute Stand -1.00 0 1 0
Evasive Maneuvers -1.00 0 1 0
Automaton Bomber -1.00 0 1 0
Spurn to Ash -1.00 0 1 0
Grand Crusader's Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Focused Flames +1.00 1 0 0
Library Witch +1.00 1 0 0
Smoke Bombs +1.00 1 0 0
Airship Engineer +1.00 1 0 0
Incendiary Shot -1.00 0 1 0
Stalwart Shieldmate -1.00 0 1 0
Hasty Messenger -1.00 0 1 0
Clumsy Apprentice +1.00 1 0 0
Reposition +1.00 1 0 0
Tariff Ring -1.00 0 1 0
Force Load +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/458/archetypes/Fire Umbra Ranger