← Wilczek - Regional Championships - PTM - 28/02/2026
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Wilczek - Regional Championships - PTM - 28/02/2026
decks
3
(8.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
9-7-2
overall winrate
55.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.6%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
51.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1287
· median 1302
· range 1130–1430
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1148
Q3 1349
1510
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.8% | -6.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.2% | +2.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -5.5 |
| Fire Suited | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Wind Allies | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
