← Wilczek - Regional Championships - PTM - 28/02/2026
Fire Firebloom BurnTier 2
at Wilczek - Regional Championships - PTM - 28/02/2026
decks
2
(5.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-5-1
overall winrate
54.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.6%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
49.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1300
· median 1300
· range 1160–1439
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1148
Q3 1349
1510
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.2% | -3.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Suited | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Water Genbu | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
