← Wilczek - Regional Championships - PTM - 28/02/2026
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Wilczek - Regional Championships - PTM - 28/02/2026
decks
3
(8.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
8-6-1
overall winrate
56.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.9%
avg ELO -1.3 per match
expected value
49.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1354
· median 1414
· range 1138–1510
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1148
Q3 1349
1510
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.2% | +6.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Water Fractal | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Water Genbu | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.0% | -10.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
