← Wilczek - Regional Championships - PTM - 28/02/2026
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Wilczek - Regional Championships - PTM - 28/02/2026
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.8% | +3.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.9% | -3.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Water Genbu | 2.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.2% | +16.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.7% | -11.8 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 36 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Feu Awakening | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Accursed Strength | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profane Bindings | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |