← Wilczek - Regional Championships - PTM - 28/02/2026
Fire Umbra AliceTier 2
at Wilczek - Regional Championships - PTM - 28/02/2026
decks
1
(2.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
0-5-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
30.2%
avg ELO -11.4 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 983
· median 983
· range 983–983
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
983
Q1 1148
Q3 1349
1510
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 10.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -7.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Water Genbu | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Alice decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
