← FTG Grand Archive Regional Event
Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at FTG Grand Archive Regional Event
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 20.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 62.7% | +9.5 |
| Wind Allies | 10.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.6% | +14.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 5.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Fire Tonoris | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Water Neos | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.6% | +11.1 |
| Wind Triskit | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 3 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 3 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Take Cover | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |