← FTG Grand Archive Regional Event
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at FTG Grand Archive Regional Event
decks
1
(2.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-3-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.7%
avg ELO -2.8 per match
expected value
45.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1260
· median 1260
· range 1260–1260
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1168
Q3 1345
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 20.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.3% | -4.3 |
| Fire Erupting | 10.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -3.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tonoris | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Triskit | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
