← FTG Grand Archive Regional Event
Water NeosTier 2
at FTG Grand Archive Regional Event
decks
1
(2.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
0-4-1
overall winrate
10.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
32.5%
avg ELO -10.1 per match
expected value
44.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1153
· median 1153
· range 1153–1153
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1168
Q3 1345
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 20.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.4% | +2.2 |
| Fire Erupting | 10.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Wind Allies | 10.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 5.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Fire Tonoris | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Triskit | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Neos decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
