← FTG Grand Archive Regional Event
Fire Umbra RangerTier 2
at FTG Grand Archive Regional Event
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Erupting | 10.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.7% | +1.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.3% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.4% | +1.9 |
| Wind Allies | 10.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.0% | -6.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.7% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.5% | +5.6 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 5.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 43.2% | -4.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.7% | +4.3 |
| Fire Tonoris | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -2.2 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
| Wind Neos | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Wind Neos Tonoris | 2.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.1% | +3.1 |
| Wind Silvie | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Wind Triskit | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 37 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 37 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Automaton Bomber | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Airship Engineer | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Seeking Shot | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flash Grenade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Seeker's Rifle | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Force Load | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Tear | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbral Tithe | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blastshot Pump | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| False Step | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Increasing Danger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Airship Cannoneer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lone Gunslinger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mindbreak Bullet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |