← Card Merchant Wellington - RDO Regional
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Card Merchant Wellington - RDO Regional.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Genbu | 2 | 6.2% | 10 | 85.0% | 63.8% | 58.0% | 55.4% | 1533 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Exia | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 75.0% | 65.9% | 55.3% | 55.8% | 1347 | — |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 6.2% | 10 | 60.0% | 53.7% | 54.8% | 53.6% | 1372 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 66.7% | 65.2% | 54.7% | 57.1% | 1349 | — |
| 5 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 2 | 6.2% | 10 | 60.0% | 67.1% | 54.3% | 57.4% | 1149 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 50.0% | 52.7% | 52.5% | 53.3% | 1211 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 3 | 9.4% | 18 | 66.7% | 50.2% | 52.5% | 48.9% | 1463 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 66.7% | 46.6% | 52.0% | 49.1% | 1458 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 58.3% | 61.8% | 50.9% | 53.7% | 1225 | — |
| 10 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 58.3% | 51.2% | 49.0% | 49.2% | 1383 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 6.2% | 12 | 41.7% | 46.3% | 47.8% | 48.9% | 1235 | — |
| 12 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 3 | 9.4% | 17 | 41.2% | 39.5% | 47.3% | 46.5% | 1333 | — |
| 13 | Water Fractal | 2 | 6.2% | 10 | 40.0% | 41.9% | 47.1% | 47.3% | 1236 | — |
| 14 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 50.0% | 47.6% | 46.7% | 47.1% | 1291 | — |
| 15 | Wind Razorgale | 2 | 6.2% | 12 | 41.7% | 46.1% | 46.7% | 48.3% | 1249 | — |
| 16 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 33.3% | 47.8% | 46.7% | 50.0% | 1130 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 33.3% | 30.2% | 46.1% | 42.7% | 1368 | ↑ top |
| 18 | Fire Arcane Rai | 1 | 3.1% | 5 | 40.0% | 39.6% | 46.0% | 45.7% | 1297 | — |
| 19 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 16.7% | 43.8% | 46.0% | 50.5% | 994 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 33.3% | 50.3% | 45.5% | 49.1% | 1189 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Fire Suited | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 33.3% | 47.6% | 44.0% | 47.6% | 1084 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Wind Umbra Guardian | 1 | 3.1% | 6 | 16.7% | 45.4% | 42.5% | 48.0% | 921 | ↓ low |