← Michigan MRC Regionals

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Michigan MRC Regionals. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd
Wind Overlord
57.0%
2.1% share · 6 matches
↑ top
1st
Water Ravishing Mill
61.8%
4.2% share · 10 matches
↑ top
3rd
Fire Crux Mage
56.9%
8.3% share · 21 matches
#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Ravishing Mill 2 4.2% 10 85.0% 70.6% 61.8% 61.4% 1386 ↑ top
2 Wind Overlord 1 2.1% 6 50.0% 52.1% 57.0% 57.6% 1348 ↑ top
3 Fire Crux Mage 4 8.3% 21 59.5% 57.9% 56.9% 55.5% 1315 —
4 Wind Crux Lorraine 1 2.1% 6 75.0% 64.7% 55.9% 56.2% 1214 ↓ low
5 Wind Allies 7 14.6% 36 58.3% 54.9% 55.7% 54.3% 1345 ↑ top
6 Fire Crux Hybrid 2 4.2% 13 61.5% 54.7% 54.8% 52.8% 1277 —
7 Wind Silvie 1 2.1% 6 41.7% 48.2% 53.6% 54.2% 1138 ↓ low
8 Wind Slice & Dice 1 2.1% 6 50.0% 52.9% 53.1% 54.9% 1208 ↓ low
9 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 2.1% 6 50.0% 53.9% 53.0% 53.3% 1390 ↑ top
10 Water Umbra Ranger 1 2.1% 4 25.0% 38.9% 51.4% 51.2% 1186 ↓ low
11 Water Allies 2 4.2% 12 58.3% 56.3% 49.6% 49.9% 1267 —
12 Slimes 12 25.0% 56 47.3% 47.9% 48.3% 48.7% 1271 —
13 Fire Erupting 1 2.1% 7 57.1% 50.7% 47.8% 48.7% 1540 ↑ top
14 Fire Slimes 2 4.2% 12 41.7% 43.0% 46.7% 46.2% 1201 ↓ low
15 Wind Shadowstrike 4 8.3% 20 47.5% 49.9% 43.6% 45.1% 1330 —
16 Wind Arcane 1 2.1% 6 41.7% 39.7% 43.1% 40.6% 1162 ↓ low
17 Fire Aggro 2 4.2% 12 45.8% 48.0% 40.0% 41.4% 1331 —
18 Fire Umbra Ranger 1 2.1% 5 0.0% 26.3% 40.0% 41.6% 1098 ↓ low
19 Fire Arcane 2 4.2% 11 27.3% 37.0% 39.8% 41.1% 1203 ↓ low
20 Fire Astra Cleric 1 2.1% 5 0.0% 25.9% 38.9% 40.3% 1130 ↓ low