← Mox Valley Games MRC Regional
Fire ArcaneTier 2
at Mox Valley Games MRC Regional
decks
2
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
0-7-3
overall winrate
15.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
29.2%
avg ELO -9.3 per match
expected value
40.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1295
· median 1295
· range 1272–1318
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1050
Q1 1199
Q3 1336
1525
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 17.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Slimes | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.9% | -6.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Fire Diana | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.2 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.2% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +2.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.5 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Arcane decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
