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Fire Crux HybridTier 2
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 17.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.0% | -14.2 |
| Slimes | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.4% | +5.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 50.8% | +0.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.6 |
| Fire Diana | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Wind Beast | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |