← Mox Valley Games MRC Regional
Wind AlliesTier 1
at Mox Valley Games MRC Regional
decks
8
(17.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
34
17-11-6
overall winrate
58.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.1%
avg ELO +2.5 per match
expected value
52.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1247
· median 1287
· range 1050–1357
(8 pilots with an ELO rating)
1050
Q1 1199
Q3 1336
1525
12% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.0% | 7 | 2-2-3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +1.5 |
| Slimes | 8.7% | 7 | 5-1-1 | 78.6% | 68.2% | 67.2% | +8.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.5% | +13.0 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 30.7% | -14.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.7% | -13.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Fire Diana | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.3% | +10.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +18.0 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.2% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.0% | +4.5 |
| Wind Overlord | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Lurking Assailant, Charged Mannequin, Rallied Advance. Losers more often ran: Windmill Engineer, Inspiring Call, Winbless Rangefinder.
Lurking Assailant
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Charged Mannequin
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Rallied Advance
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Windrider Vanguard
Winning decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Andronika, Eternal Herald
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Second Wind
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Windmill Engineer
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Inspiring Call
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Winbless Rangefinder
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Reclaim
Losing decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
winning decks 2.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Windpiercer
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 65 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 45 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lurking Assailant | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Charged Mannequin | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Rallied Advance | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Andronika, Eternal Herald | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Second Wind | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Windmill Engineer | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Winbless Rangefinder | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Manufacture Cell | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Trained Hawk | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reprogram | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Perse, Relentless Raptor | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Concealed Marksman | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Rifle | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Battlefield Spotter | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tasershot | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Veiled Dash | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Emerald Pistol | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Turbulent Bullet | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Windpiercer | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Skirting Step | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Armored Valkyrie | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Eye of Argus | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cell Vanguard | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Attune with the Winds | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |