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Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 17.4% | 7 | 2-2-3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -1.5 |
| Slimes | 8.7% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 38.7% | -7.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.3% | +10.8 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.0% | +14.2 |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.3% | +3.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.4% | +13.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.2% | +6.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Fire Diana | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Fire Neos | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -3.0 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.8 |
| Wind Beast | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.9 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleansing Reunion | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sable Remnant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadow Resonance | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Zephyr | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Corhazi Outlook | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sirocco Operative | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |