← Mox Valley Games MRC Regional
Water Crux MageTier 2
at Mox Valley Games MRC Regional
decks
1
(2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-2-2
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.5%
avg ELO -9.3 per match
expected value
38.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
38.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1212
· median 1212
· range 1212–1212
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1050
Q1 1199
Q3 1336
1525
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 17.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 8.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.6% | -15.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diana | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
