← Mox Valley Games MRC Regional
Water AlliesTier 1
at Mox Valley Games MRC Regional
decks
3
(6.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
7-8-0
overall winrate
46.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.8%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1209
· median 1267
· range 1051–1308
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1050
Q1 1199
Q3 1336
1525
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 17.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.3% | +14.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.7% | -3.2 |
| Slimes | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 6.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.6% | -5.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Fire Diana | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
