Mox Valley Games MRC Regional

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Wind Allies	Tier 1	8	17.4%	17-11-6	58.8%	57.1%	52.5%	52.4%	1247	—
2		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 1	6	13.0%	19-8-5	67.2%	61.2%	55.6%	53.7%	1384	↑ top
3		Slimes	Tier 1	4	8.7%	14-8-2	62.5%	61.6%	52.1%	52.4%	1303	—
4		Water Ravishing Mill	Tier 2	4	8.7%	8-12-0	40.0%	44.9%	42.2%	44.4%	1286	—
5		Fire Crux Hybrid	Tier 2	3	6.5%	7-7-1	50.0%	51.2%	49.8%	50.0%	1347	↑ top
6		Water Allies	Tier 1	3	6.5%	7-8-0	46.7%	49.8%	51.1%	51.7%	1209	↓ low
7		Fire Aggro	Tier 1	2	4.3%	6-6-0	50.0%	48.0%	50.6%	49.8%	1336	↑ top
8		Fire Arcane	Tier 2	2	4.3%	0-7-3	15.0%	29.2%	40.6%	42.5%	1295	—
9		Fire Slimes	Tier 1	2	4.3%	5-2-5	62.5%	48.3%	52.8%	48.2%	1162	↓ low
10		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 2	1	2.2%	4-1-1	75.0%	59.8%	54.6%	53.2%	1253	—
11		Fire Diana	Tier 2	1	2.2%	0-3-0	0.0%	36.1%	36.2%	41.0%	1134	↓ low
12		Fire Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	1	2.2%	1-3-1	30.0%	40.8%	44.7%	45.7%	1203	↓ low
13		Fire Neos	Tier 2	1	2.2%	1-4-1	25.0%	41.6%	41.8%	43.8%	1163	↓ low
14		Fire Ravishing Mill	Tier 2	1	2.2%	2-3-1	41.7%	47.6%	46.0%	47.6%	1170	↓ low
15		Norm Tera Silvie	Tier 2	1	2.2%	1-3-2	33.3%	41.6%	43.0%	43.9%	1125	↓ low
16		Water Astra Cleric	Tier 2	1	2.2%	1-4-0	20.0%	37.0%	44.0%	45.7%	1241	—
17		Water Crux Mage	Tier 2	1	2.2%	0-2-2	25.0%	35.5%	38.9%	38.1%	1212	↓ low
18		Water Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	1	2.2%	3-3-0	50.0%	47.4%	46.7%	46.8%	1314	↑ top
19		Wind Beast	Tier 2	1	2.2%	0-2-1	16.7%	35.6%	41.7%	41.0%	1091	↓ low
20		Wind Crux Mage	Tier 2	1	2.2%	3-1-2	66.7%	57.8%	51.5%	51.0%	1263	—
21		Wind Overlord	Tier 2	1	2.2%	1-2-3	41.7%	51.2%	46.2%	49.1%	1198	↓ low

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Wind Allies 8 decks · 17.4%
• Wind Shadowstrike 6 decks · 13.0%
• Slimes 4 decks · 8.7%
• Water Ravishing Mill 4 decks · 8.7%
• Fire Crux Hybrid 3 decks · 6.5%
• Water Allies 3 decks · 6.5%
• Fire Aggro 2 decks · 4.3%
• Fire Arcane 2 decks · 4.3%
• Fire Slimes 2 decks · 4.3%
• Fire Crux Mage 1 deck · 2.2%
• Fire Diana 1 deck · 2.2%
• Fire Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 2.2%
• Fire Neos 1 deck · 2.2%
• Fire Ravishing Mill 1 deck · 2.2%
• Norm Tera Silvie 1 deck · 2.2%
• Water Astra Cleric 1 deck · 2.2%
• Water Crux Mage 1 deck · 2.2%
• Water Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 2.2%
• Wind Beast 1 deck · 2.2%
• Wind Crux Mage 1 deck · 2.2%
• Wind Overlord 1 deck · 2.2%