← FTG Grand Archive Regionals

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at FTG Grand Archive Regionals . EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd
Fire Lorraine
56.0%
2.1% share · 6 matches
1st
Fire Erupting
61.7%
6.2% share · 16 matches
↑ top
3rd
Wind Umbra Ranger
53.1%
4.2% share · 10 matches
#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Erupting 3 6.2% 16 84.4% 66.7% 61.7% 57.9% 1478 ↑ top
2 Fire Lorraine 1 2.1% 6 75.0% 68.4% 56.0% 58.2% 1340 —
3 Wind Umbra Ranger 2 4.2% 10 60.0% 59.9% 53.1% 53.9% 1332 —
4 Wind Slimes 2 4.2% 8 56.2% 45.8% 53.0% 48.9% 1423 ↑ top
5 Wind Allies 3 6.2% 18 50.0% 40.9% 52.2% 48.4% 1366 ↑ top
6 Wind Shadowstrike 3 6.2% 15 53.3% 53.1% 50.9% 51.7% 1300 —
7 Slimes 9 18.8% 38 55.3% 54.0% 50.7% 51.5% 1308 —
8 Fire Crux Hybrid 3 6.2% 18 69.4% 50.5% 50.3% 45.6% 1415 ↑ top
9 Fire Astra Cleric 2 4.2% 11 50.0% 57.1% 50.2% 53.5% 1236 ↓ low
10 Fire Aggro 2 4.2% 10 50.0% 54.9% 48.4% 51.3% 1319 —
11 Fire Umbra Ranger 1 2.1% 2 50.0% 58.0% 48.0% 53.3% 1091 ↓ low
12 Water Ravishing Mill 3 6.2% 15 36.7% 45.4% 47.6% 49.9% 1346 —
13 Norm Tera Silvie 2 4.2% 8 31.2% 42.6% 46.9% 48.8% 1110 ↓ low
14 Water Allies 1 2.1% 6 50.0% 60.3% 45.7% 50.7% 1191 ↓ low
15 Wind Astra Cleric 1 2.1% 6 16.7% 42.2% 45.0% 49.6% 1247 —
16 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 2.1% 6 50.0% 50.1% 44.7% 46.4% 1395 ↑ top
17 Wind Neos 1 2.1% 6 50.0% 59.7% 44.2% 48.4% 1164 ↓ low
18 Wind Umbra Tristan 1 2.1% 6 33.3% 42.5% 43.3% 45.1% 1250 —
19 Wind Luxem Assassin 1 2.1% 6 41.7% 35.8% 43.2% 43.0% 1349 ↑ top
20 Fire Arcane 1 2.1% 6 16.7% 34.0% 43.0% 44.8% 1175 ↓ low
21 Water Neos 1 2.1% 6 16.7% 42.3% 41.1% 45.2% 1153 ↓ low
22 Wind Crux Lorraine 2 4.2% 7 28.6% 28.2% 41.1% 38.8% 1236 ↓ low
23 Water Umbra Ranger 1 2.1% 2 0.0% 39.8% 40.0% 44.4% 976 ↓ low
24 Fire Crux Mage 1 2.1% 2 0.0% 39.9% 40.0% 45.7% 1128 ↓ low