← Weatherlight Grand Archive MRC Store Championship 2024
Fire ArcaneTier 2
at Weatherlight Grand Archive MRC Store Championship 2024
decks
1
(2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-4-1
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.7%
avg ELO -6.0 per match
expected value
41.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1198
· median 1198
· range 1198–1198
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1100
Q1 1224
Q3 1420
1624
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 17.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.0% | -13.4 |
| Slimes | 11.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Arcane decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
