← Weatherlight Grand Archive MRC Store Championship 2024
Water AlliesTier 1
at Weatherlight Grand Archive MRC Store Championship 2024
decks
2
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
16
10-5-1
overall winrate
65.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
61.3%
avg ELO +4.5 per match
expected value
50.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1307
· median 1307
· range 1298–1315
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1100
Q1 1224
Q3 1420
1624
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 17.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 37.1% | -9.6 |
| Slimes | 11.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.8% | +5.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.1% | +2.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.3 |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Water Neos | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Wind Overlord | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
