← Weatherlight Grand Archive MRC Store Championship 2024
Fire Crux HybridTier 1
at Weatherlight Grand Archive MRC Store Championship 2024
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 17.6% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 62.3% | +7.1 |
| Slimes | 11.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 64.7% | +9.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.8% | -5.9 |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Repelling Palmblast | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |