← Weatherlight Grand Archive MRC Store Championship 2024
Wind AlliesTier 1
at Weatherlight Grand Archive MRC Store Championship 2024
decks
6
(17.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
36
20-16-0
overall winrate
55.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.5%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
50.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1402
· median 1371
· range 1221–1624
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1100
Q1 1224
Q3 1420
1624
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
17% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 11.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 54.8% | +2.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 55.2% | +3.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -2.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.8% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 37.7% | -7.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 62.9% | +9.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.0% | +13.4 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -2.6 |
| Water Neos | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.8% | -8.4 |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Wind Overlord | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.0% | +14.2 |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Eternal Magistrate, Viridian Protective Trinket, Lurking Assailant. Losers more often ran: Manufacture Cell, Reclaim, Tithe Proclamation.
Eternal Magistrate
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Lurking Assailant
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 3.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Veiling Breeze
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Smoke Bombs
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Dream Fairy
Winning decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
losing decks 2.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Manufacture Cell
Losing decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Reclaim
Losing decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Tithe Proclamation
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Diablerie
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Andronika, Eternal Herald
Losing decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
winning decks 2.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Wind Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 53 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manufacture Cell | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Reclaim | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Armored Valkyrie | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Rallied Advance | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Second Wind | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diablerie | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Andronika, Eternal Herald | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cell Vanguard | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Reprogram | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Zephyr | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Displace | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Attune with the Winds | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vigilant Sentry | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windpiercer | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Charged Mannequin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Trained Hawk | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 |