← Weatherlight Grand Archive MRC Store Championship 2024
Water NeosTier 2
at Weatherlight Grand Archive MRC Store Championship 2024
decks
1
(2.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-5-0
overall winrate
16.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.3%
avg ELO -6.8 per match
expected value
43.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1161
· median 1161
· range 1161–1161
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1100
Q1 1224
Q3 1420
1624
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 17.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 11.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.6% | +4.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Neos decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
