← Weatherlight Grand Archive MRC Store Championship 2024
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Weatherlight Grand Archive MRC Store Championship 2024
decks
4
(11.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
27
11-12-4
overall winrate
48.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.1%
avg ELO -1.8 per match
expected value
47.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1400
· median 1464
· range 1187–1484
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1100
Q1 1224
Q3 1420
1624
75% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 17.6% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 44.8% | -3.0 |
| Slimes | 11.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -2.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 50.8% | +0.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.8% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 35.3% | -9.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +0.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -4.1 |
| Water Allies | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Fire Slice & Dice | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Water Neos | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.4% | -4.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
