← Aria's Cardshop ALC Regionals
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Aria's Cardshop ALC Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Allies | 2 | 10.5% | 14 | 85.7% | 75.5% | 60.9% | 60.1% | 1462 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Umbra Ranger | 2 | 10.5% | 13 | 69.2% | 66.7% | 57.9% | 58.6% | 1402 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 49.2% | 54.1% | 51.0% | 1464 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 42.6% | 51.7% | 50.3% | 1214 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 10.5% | 10 | 50.0% | 49.4% | 50.4% | 49.9% | 1278 | — |
| 6 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 5.3% | 7 | 42.9% | 47.4% | 50.3% | 50.8% | 1190 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Erupting | 3 | 15.8% | 15 | 40.0% | 42.6% | 47.2% | 47.5% | 1199 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 4 | 21.1% | 17 | 35.3% | 38.1% | 44.8% | 44.6% | 1277 | — |
| 9 | Wind Allies | 4 | 21.1% | 16 | 31.2% | 37.9% | 43.8% | 44.9% | 1316 | — |