← Card Merchant Christchurch Regional
Fire AggroTier 1
at Card Merchant Christchurch Regional
decks
2
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
7-5-0
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.1%
avg ELO +3.0 per match
expected value
56.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1207
· median 1207
· range 1174–1239
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
973
Q1 1153
Q3 1364
1558
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 21.7% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 55.1% | +3.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.3% | +12.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 6.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Wind Neos | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
