← Card Merchant Christchurch Regional
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Card Merchant Christchurch Regional
decks
3
(6.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
6-8-1
overall winrate
43.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.8%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
45.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1144
· median 1129
· range 1091–1211
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
973
Q1 1153
Q3 1364
1558
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
67% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 21.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.0% | -1.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +2.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Wind Allies | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.0% | -2.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.6 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.1 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
