← Card Merchant Christchurch Regional
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Card Merchant Christchurch Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 21.7% | 8 | 5-2-1 | 68.8% | 62.5% | 56.7% | +3.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.0% | +12.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.0% | +1.5 |
| Wind Allies | 6.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.8% | +12.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.8% | +10.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.1% | -9.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.0% | +19.2 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 47.5% | -1.6 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.6 |
| Wind Neos | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reclaim | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire Mantle | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadow Resonance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |