← Card Merchant Christchurch Regional
Fire Umbra RangerTier 2
at Card Merchant Christchurch Regional
decks
3
(6.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
8-10-0
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.7%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
46.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1309
· median 1291
· range 1229–1405
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
973
Q1 1153
Q3 1364
1558
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 21.7% | 9 | 4-5-0 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 50.5% | +0.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.0% | -12.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.4% | +14.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Wind Allies | 6.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.5 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Umbra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
