← Card Merchant Christchurch Regional
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Card Merchant Christchurch Regional
decks
4
(8.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20
5-12-3
overall winrate
32.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.5%
avg ELO -4.4 per match
expected value
46.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1239
· median 1251
· range 1051–1404
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
973
Q1 1153
Q3 1364
1558
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 21.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +1.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 15.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 6.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.6% | -14.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.5% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -2.9 |
| Wind Allies | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.7% | -12.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.3% | -2.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.3 |
| Wind Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.3 |
