EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Brisbane Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 100.0% | 71.8% | 65.7% | 62.1% | 1378 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Allies | 4 | 22.2% | 18 | 61.1% | 53.9% | 53.5% | 51.5% | 1224 | — |
| 3 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 2 | 11.1% | 8 | 62.5% | 54.5% | 53.3% | 52.2% | 1329 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 11.1% | 8 | 68.8% | 63.6% | 52.8% | 54.2% | 1265 | — |
| 5 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 50.0% | 47.9% | 50.0% | 49.2% | 1184 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Erupting | 2 | 11.1% | 10 | 40.0% | 42.6% | 49.3% | 49.2% | 1233 | — |
| 7 | Water Umbra Ranger | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 50.0% | 58.9% | 47.4% | 52.2% | 1270 | — |
| 8 | Wind Beast | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.9% | 45.2% | 47.4% | 1159 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Arcane | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 20.0% | 36.6% | 44.4% | 46.4% | 1336 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 48.2% | 43.3% | 45.9% | 1217 | — |
| 11 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 2 | 11.1% | 8 | 6.2% | 23.5% | 39.3% | 40.7% | 1118 | ↓ low |