EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Toronto ALC Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Allies | 3 | 5.9% | 18 | 75.0% | 65.3% | 58.0% | 56.2% | 1324 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Umbra Ranger | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 66.7% | 59.0% | 53.9% | 53.6% | 1229 | — |
| 3 | Wind Allies | 7 | 13.7% | 38 | 59.2% | 58.9% | 53.4% | 53.8% | 1228 | — |
| 4 | Fire Erupting | 7 | 13.7% | 41 | 61.0% | 59.4% | 53.2% | 53.2% | 1283 | — |
| 5 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 5 | 9.8% | 27 | 55.6% | 50.5% | 52.4% | 50.1% | 1249 | — |
| 6 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 3 | 5.9% | 14 | 60.7% | 59.1% | 51.8% | 52.5% | 1253 | — |
| 7 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 5.9% | 18 | 47.2% | 48.1% | 51.8% | 51.7% | 1286 | — |
| 8 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 2.0% | 7 | 57.1% | 53.1% | 49.6% | 49.4% | 1299 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 4 | 7.8% | 28 | 51.8% | 49.6% | 49.6% | 49.0% | 1283 | — |
| 10 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 3 | 5.9% | 18 | 52.8% | 53.6% | 48.6% | 49.8% | 1282 | — |
| 11 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 2.0% | 3 | 33.3% | 43.3% | 48.0% | 48.3% | 1063 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Tera Silvie | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 50.0% | 51.5% | 47.9% | 48.7% | 1122 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 2.0% | 7 | 42.9% | 49.2% | 47.0% | 48.9% | 1262 | — |
| 14 | Water Luxem Assassin | 2 | 3.9% | 14 | 35.7% | 40.0% | 44.5% | 45.4% | 1190 | — |
| 15 | Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 33.3% | 40.4% | 44.0% | 44.4% | 1169 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Arcane | 5 | 9.8% | 30 | 40.0% | 43.4% | 43.7% | 44.7% | 1180 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Tera Tamer | 1 | 2.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 37.2% | 42.0% | 43.4% | 1210 | — |
| 18 | Water Umbra Diana | 1 | 2.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 36.7% | 41.2% | 42.3% | 1284 | — |
| 19 | Water Crux Mage | 2 | 3.9% | 9 | 5.6% | 21.9% | 40.6% | 41.3% | 1082 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Water Tera Silvie | 2 | 3.9% | 10 | 15.0% | 27.0% | 39.8% | 40.7% | 1113 | ↓ low |