← Weatherlight Grand Archive ALC Regionals
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Weatherlight Grand Archive ALC Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 10 | 12.8% | 56 | 62.5% | 57.0% | 57.7% | 55.2% | 1379 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Tonoris | 1 | 1.3% | 9 | 72.2% | 59.6% | 57.7% | 54.7% | 1624 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 3.8% | 23 | 65.2% | 61.6% | 55.5% | 54.8% | 1227 | — |
| 4 | Fire Erupting | 1 | 1.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 54.7% | 55.4% | 56.7% | 1320 | — |
| 5 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 1.3% | 7 | 57.1% | 54.4% | 52.8% | 53.0% | 1145 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Crux Mage | 10 | 12.8% | 56 | 57.1% | 55.1% | 52.3% | 51.6% | 1350 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Tera Silvie | 1 | 1.3% | 7 | 42.9% | 51.6% | 51.6% | 53.4% | 1073 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 1.3% | 7 | 57.1% | 60.1% | 51.0% | 53.0% | 1161 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 3 | 3.8% | 19 | 63.2% | 57.9% | 50.8% | 50.2% | 1290 | — |
| 10 | Water Allies | 13 | 16.7% | 67 | 52.2% | 51.5% | 49.8% | 49.4% | 1282 | — |
| 11 | Fire Arcane | 3 | 3.8% | 24 | 56.2% | 49.2% | 49.1% | 47.3% | 1412 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.3% | 7 | 42.9% | 53.9% | 48.3% | 51.1% | 1354 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 9 | 11.5% | 52 | 46.2% | 48.1% | 47.0% | 49.3% | 1207 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Neos | 2 | 2.6% | 12 | 45.8% | 51.5% | 46.6% | 49.4% | 1207 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Tera Silvie | 1 | 1.3% | 7 | 42.9% | 45.7% | 46.6% | 47.1% | 1161 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Wind Allies | 9 | 11.5% | 57 | 48.2% | 50.2% | 46.4% | 47.7% | 1221 | — |
| 17 | Fire Tera Tamer | 1 | 1.3% | 7 | 50.0% | 55.7% | 44.3% | 46.9% | 1301 | — |
| 18 | Wind Lorraine | 2 | 2.6% | 11 | 31.8% | 36.9% | 44.0% | 44.0% | 1182 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 1.3% | 4 | 12.5% | 33.7% | 41.6% | 44.0% | 1522 | ↑ top |
| 20 | Wind Neos | 1 | 1.3% | 7 | 28.6% | 38.1% | 41.5% | 42.4% | 1110 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Fire Umbra Diana | 2 | 2.6% | 13 | 15.4% | 25.1% | 40.1% | 40.7% | 1063 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Fire Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.3% | 5 | 10.0% | 32.3% | 40.1% | 42.5% | 1073 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Fire Arisanna | 1 | 1.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 27.2% | 40.0% | 41.0% | 1292 | — |
| 24 | Fire Crux Merlin | 1 | 1.3% | 5 | 40.0% | 48.6% | 39.2% | 41.7% | 1199 | ↓ low |
| 25 | Fire Neos | 1 | 1.3% | 8 | 0.0% | 17.1% | 37.7% | 38.1% | 1098 | ↓ low |