← Card Merchant Auckland Regionals
Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at Card Merchant Auckland Regionals
decks
2
(3.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-5-1
overall winrate
38.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.2%
avg ELO -2.2 per match
expected value
45.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1271
· median 1271
· range 1245–1297
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1073
Q1 1189
Q3 1396
1599
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 20.8% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 50.7% | +0.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.2% | -6.6 |
| Wind Allies | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
