← Card Merchant Auckland Regionals
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Card Merchant Auckland Regionals
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 20.8% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.7% | +4.1 |
| Wind Allies | 7.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.0% | -13.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.5% | -12.0 |
| Slimes | 5.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.1% | -10.4 |
| Water Allies | 5.7% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 33.6% | -9.5 |
| Wind Slimes | 5.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -3.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.8% | +6.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Fire Erupting | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Fire Silvie | 1.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -3.7 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Water Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Wind Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Glitter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |