← Card Merchant Auckland Regionals
Water Tera SilvieTier 3
at Card Merchant Auckland Regionals
decks
1
(1.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.5%
avg ELO -1.9 per match
expected value
43.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1396
· median 1396
· range 1396–1396
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1073
Q1 1189
Q3 1396
1599
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 20.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 11.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Wind Allies | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.8% | -6.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 5.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Wind Slimes | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Tera Silvie decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
