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Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Aria's Cardshop MRC Regionals
decks
2
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
7-5-1
overall winrate
57.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.7%
avg ELO +3.2 per match
expected value
54.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1278
· median 1278
· range 1221–1334
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1073
Q1 1218
Q3 1410
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.9% | +15.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -2.5 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 10.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +2.4 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Water Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
