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Wind ShadowstrikeTier 1
at Aria's Cardshop MRC Regionals
decks
3
(7.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
12-5-4
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.4%
avg ELO +4.0 per match
expected value
58.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1515
· median 1510
· range 1493–1543
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1073
Q1 1218
Q3 1410
1584
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.3% | +11.8 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 10.0% | 6 | 1-2-3 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 47.0% | -1.6 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.9% | +20.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.6 |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.3% | -9.3 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Wind Vanitas | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
