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Fire Crux MerlinTier 1
at Aria's Cardshop MRC Regionals
decks
4
(10.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
27
13-9-5
overall winrate
57.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.0%
avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
54.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1373
· median 1419
· range 1207–1445
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1073
Q1 1218
Q3 1410
1584
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 50.7% | +0.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 10.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.1% | -8.2 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 5 | 4-0-1 | 90.0% | 72.2% | 67.6% | +10.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.5% | 6 | 2-1-3 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 53.0% | +1.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -2.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 5.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.0% | -5.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
