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Water Ravishing MillTier 1
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Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 56.4% | +4.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Waverider Protector | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Avalon, Cursed Isle | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Powered Defender | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |