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Water AlliesTier 2
at Aria's Cardshop MRC Regionals
decks
1
(2.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-1-2
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.8%
avg ELO +5.7 per match
expected value
56.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1354
· median 1354
· range 1354–1354
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1073
Q1 1218
Q3 1410
1584
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 25.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.7% | +4.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Wind Allies | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.7% | +9.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Lorraine | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
