Aria's Cardshop MRC Regionals

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Slimes	Tier 2	10	25.0%	16-26-5	39.4%	42.7%	44.8%	46.4%	1268	—
2		Fire Crux Hybrid	Tier 2	4	10.0%	9-10-1	47.5%	51.5%	50.3%	51.8%	1236	↓ low
3		Fire Crux Merlin	Tier 1	4	10.0%	13-9-5	57.4%	51.0%	54.5%	51.0%	1373	↑ top
4		Wind Allies	Tier 2	4	10.0%	9-12-3	43.8%	44.8%	45.4%	45.7%	1292	—
5		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 1	3	7.5%	12-5-4	66.7%	60.4%	58.4%	56.3%	1515	↑ top
6		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 1	2	5.0%	7-5-1	57.7%	57.7%	54.0%	54.3%	1278	—
7		Fire Slimes	Tier 1	2	5.0%	9-4-0	69.2%	54.1%	56.0%	52.4%	1466	↑ top
8		Water Ravishing Mill	Tier 1	2	5.0%	4-5-1	45.0%	48.3%	51.0%	51.9%	1190	↓ low
9		Water Umbra Diana	Tier 2	2	5.0%	3-7-2	33.3%	38.5%	45.2%	45.2%	1385	↑ top
10		Fire Arcane	Tier 2	1	2.5%	2-4-0	33.3%	42.2%	42.4%	43.6%	1073	↓ low
11		Fire Astra Cleric	Tier 2	1	2.5%	4-3-0	57.1%	55.2%	55.0%	54.1%	1361	↑ top
12		Fire Lorraine	Tier 2	1	2.5%	3-3-0	50.0%	56.3%	54.5%	55.8%	1300	—
13		Fire Luxem Assassin	Tier 2	1	2.5%	3-3-0	50.0%	47.3%	53.7%	52.1%	1278	—
14		Water Allies	Tier 2	1	2.5%	3-1-2	66.7%	60.8%	56.8%	55.6%	1354	—
15		Wind Umbra Tristan	Tier 2	1	2.5%	2-3-1	41.7%	48.6%	53.5%	54.7%	1312	—
16		Wind Vanitas	Tier 2	1	2.5%	3-2-1	58.3%	58.8%	50.0%	52.2%	1264	—

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Slimes 10 decks · 25.0%
• Fire Crux Hybrid 4 decks · 10.0%
• Fire Crux Merlin 4 decks · 10.0%
• Wind Allies 4 decks · 10.0%
• Wind Shadowstrike 3 decks · 7.5%
• Fire Crux Mage 2 decks · 5.0%
• Fire Slimes 2 decks · 5.0%
• Water Ravishing Mill 2 decks · 5.0%
• Water Umbra Diana 2 decks · 5.0%
• Fire Arcane 1 deck · 2.5%
• Fire Astra Cleric 1 deck · 2.5%
• Fire Lorraine 1 deck · 2.5%
• Fire Luxem Assassin 1 deck · 2.5%
• Water Allies 1 deck · 2.5%
• Wind Umbra Tristan 1 deck · 2.5%
• Wind Vanitas 1 deck · 2.5%