Fire Crux HybridTier 1
at Hong Kong Regional 2024
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 35.0% | 18 | 9-6-3 | 58.3% | 56.8% | 55.6% | +2.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.0% | 9 | 5-4-0 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 49.6% | -0.2 |
| Wind Allies | 6.0% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -1.7 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.0% | +14.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 52.6% | +1.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Water Neos | 2.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.0% | -8.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.7% | +11.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.9% | +14.3 |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.0% | -5.2 |
Decklists · 11 from this event
The 11 public Fire Crux Hybrid decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |