Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at Hong Kong Regional 2024
decks
5
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
29
14-11-4
overall winrate
55.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.5%
avg ELO +2.4 per match
expected value
53.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1280
· median 1264
· range 1221–1397
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1056
Q1 1167
Q3 1308
1730
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 35.0% | 12 | 5-5-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.1% | +14.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 11.0% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 47.4% | -1.7 |
| Wind Allies | 6.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.8% | -4.6 |
| Fire Erupting | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.2 |
| Water Neos | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 1.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.7% | -7.9 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
