Water Crux MageTier 2
at Hong Kong Regional 2024
decks
1
(1.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
5-1-1
overall winrate
78.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
71.9%
avg ELO +11.0 per match
expected value
52.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1338
· median 1338
· range 1338–1338
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1056
Q1 1167
Q3 1308
1730
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 35.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 11.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +4.2 |
| Wind Allies | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.5 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
