Fire EruptingTier 2
at Hong Kong Regional 2024
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 35.0% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 47.5% | -1.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 11.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 31.0% | -14.2 |
| Wind Allies | 6.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Arisanna | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Hybrid | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Erupting decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 2 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 2 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Elysian Astrolabe | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cosmic Astroscope | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |